A senior adviser to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has accused Tigrayan forces and external regional actors of deliberately sabotaging peace efforts across the fragile Horn of Africa, Al Jazeera reported.
The blunt assessment reflects worsening tensions across the country, where the landmark November 2022 cessation of hostilities agreement signed in Pretoria, South Africa, is coming under sustained strain. While that pact officially ended a catastrophic two-year civil war in the northern Tigray region, the implementation of key provisions has stalled amid mutual recriminations between Addis Ababa and regional commanders.
Unravelling the Pretoria Accord
Under the terms of the 2022 accord, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) agreed to disarm its combatants and restore federal control in exchange for humanitarian access, basic services, and the withdrawal of non-federal forces. However, federal authorities maintain that full demobilisation has not taken place, claiming armed elements remain active and are actively resisting integration.
According to the Al Jazeera report, the prime minister’s adviser pointed directly to Tigrayan elements and neighbouring actors as primary impediments to domestic and regional security. Tigrayan officials, by contrast, have frequently maintained that their full compliance is hampered by the ongoing presence of Eritrean troops and regional militias from the neighbouring Amhara province on their territory, alongside delays in returning displaced communities.
Multi-Front Unrest Weakens Federal Control
The warnings from Addis Ababa come at a time when Prime Minister Abiy’s government is battling simultaneous insurrections on multiple fronts. The federal military remains locked in protracted combat against the Fano militia in the Amhara region, where heavy clashes have raged since mid-2023 following government attempts to dissolve regional special forces.
At the same time, long-running insurgencies in Oromia, Ethiopia’s most populous region, continue to tie down significant federal security resources. The overlapping crises have stretched the Ethiopian National Defence Force, rendering the fragile armistice in Tigray increasingly vulnerable to local flare-ups.
Escalating Feuds Across the Horn of Africa
The adviser’s criticism of broader regional forces also points to a fraught diplomatic landscape beyond Ethiopia’s borders. Relations between Addis Ababa and its neighbours have chilled considerably in recent months, largely driven by Ethiopia’s pursuit of direct sea access.
A controversial memorandum of understanding signed between Ethiopia and the breakaway territory of Somaliland sparked outrage in Mogadishu, pushing Somalia into closer military cooperation with Egypt—Ethiopia’s long-standing rival over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. Regional security analysts warn that internal Ethiopian dissidence risks becoming an arena for proxy competition among competing Horn powers.
Mounting Strain on Global Aid Budgets
The renewed political deterioration presents severe complications for international relief efforts. More than 20 million people across Ethiopia require emergency food assistance, driven by a combination of armed conflict, economic collapse, and severe drought.
Western donors, including the Australian Government, have funnelled tens of millions of dollars in humanitarian aid into the Horn of Africa over recent years, with Australian relief funding targeted at food security and displaced civilian protection. However, international diplomatic missions fear that renewed armed clashes will reverse recent gains, stranding critical humanitarian programmes and compounding the misery of millions across the region.