Ongoing hostilities between the United States and Iran, marked by recent aggressive US military actions, continue to cast a shadow of uncertainty over the future of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite Iran’s persistent rhetoric and implied threats to disrupt this critical global shipping lane, Australian security analysts and maritime law experts contend that a permanent toll or closure of the Strait is neither legally permissible nor practically achievable.
The strategic waterway, which funnels a significant portion of the world’s oil supply, has repeatedly become a flashpoint in the simmering geopolitical rivalry. Each escalation, including the latest US airstrikes reported in international media, inevitably reignites fears in global commodity markets and among major trading nations, including Australia, about the security of maritime trade. However, as The Conversation AU recently highlighted, the complexities of international law and the realities of naval power make any long-term Iranian blockade or tolling effort highly improbable.
International Law Trumps Belligerence
Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Strait of Hormuz is firmly established as an international strait, guaranteeing the right of ‘transit passage’ for all vessels. This fundamental principle ensures that ships, including warships, can navigate the channel without undue impediment, irrespective of the political climate. Any attempt by Iran to impose a unilateral toll, levy taxes on passing vessels, or restrict access would be a direct violation of these internationally recognised maritime laws. Legal scholars, as noted by The Conversation AU, universally dismiss the legitimacy of such a claim, rendering any Iranian assertion of sovereign right to toll the Strait legally baseless.
Furthermore, the international community, particularly major naval powers with vested economic interests, would almost certainly unite in condemning and actively resisting any such move. The economic fallout from a prolonged closure or significant taxation of passage through the Strait would be catastrophic globally, triggering an immediate and concerted international response, making a unilateral Iranian action unsustainable in the long run.
Practicalities and Power Imbalances
Beyond the legal frameworks, the sheer practicalities of enforcing a permanent toll or blockade present insurmountable challenges for Iran. While Iran’s naval forces are capable of intermittent harassment and temporary disruptions, sustained enforcement against a backdrop of global opposition is an entirely different proposition. The US Fifth Fleet, permanently stationed in the region, possesses overwhelming naval superiority and would swiftly move to ensure the freedom of navigation. Any genuine attempt by Iran to close the Strait would be met with a decisive military response, aimed at reopening the channel.
Analysts quoted in The Conversation AU article emphasised that while Iran might attempt to deploy mines, swarm tactics with small boats, or briefly interfere with commercial traffic, these actions are primarily for symbolic leverage and short-term disruption, rather than a viable long-term strategy for control. The capability required to inspect, board, and continuously collect tolls from thousands of vessels annually, under hostile international scrutiny, is far beyond Iran’s current operational limits and would be financially ruinous even if it were achievable.
Economic Self-Harm for Iran
Paradoxically, any sustained attempt to disrupt or toll the Strait of Hormuz would inflict severe economic self-harm on Iran itself. As a significant oil and gas exporter, Iran relies heavily on the very same shipping lane for its own trade. Blockading or charging exorbitant fees to international vessels would effectively choke its primary export lifeline, exacerbating its already strained economy. The global outcry would also likely lead to further crippling international sanctions and a complete cessation of its oil exports, a price Iran is unlikely to be willing to pay.
The broader implications for global energy markets cannot be overstated. A significant and prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz would cause oil prices to skyrocket, potentially reaching beyond AUD$150 per barrel, triggering a global recession. This immense economic pressure would undoubtedly galvanise a robust international coalition to neutralise any Iranian threat to the Strait, underscoring the impracticality and unsustainability of such a move for Tehran.
